Sunday, October 12, 2008

2008 Presidential Predictions




2008 Presidential Predictions

In case you didn't know, the 2008 Presidential election is almost here. There's many polls running around out there online and on all the crazy 24-hour news channels. I know much of it is information and entertainment for the masses, but the electoral maps are pretty fun. I'll give you my predictions right here. The best map is right here from CNN - well maybe not the best, but at least the most interactive, most colorful, and easiest to read. Yes CNN. That should be their new slogan.

And I am no political expert, but I have traveled much of the country and have a unique perspective of political happenings. These are just educated guesses, but I feel pretty good about most of them. You can fool around with the map yourself, but here is they way I see it going.

Right Now:

OBAMA: 177 in the bag, 87 leaning Obama = 264
MCCAIN: 125 in the bag, 49 leaning McCain = 174
TO CLOSE TO CALL: 100
NEEDED TO WIN: 270

So with 3 weeks left, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that Obama is looking good. If these numbers stay the same, he only needs to grab 6 more electoral votes.

Here are my predictions:
First off, the leaning states.
I see Washington, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New Hampshire sticking with Obama rather handily.
I see Georgia, Louisiana, West Virginia, and Arkansas sticking with McCain.

That means for me, states to close to call Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia being to close to call, plus my additions - New Mexico (currently leaning Obama) Montana and Indiana (currently leaning McCain) and Maine (unpredictable due to its proportional system)

Here's how I see the final pieces falling, in order of how sure to unsure I am.

Montana - McCain - I don't understand why Montana is close, but it is. I think Obama is wasting funds. One, he won't win, and two it's only 3 electoral votes. And a personal note here, the local bar I frequent in Philipsburg, MT has multiple Confederate flags on the wall and even when I go to the second largest city in the state, I still get looks for wearing a straight brimmed hat. Doesn't look too good Obama.

North Carolina - I think this one may be leaning to McCain soon. I'm actually here right now. It's a nice state, but it's Southern, for real, lots of accents, but lots of money too. That should work in McCain's favor. From Sept 28-Oct 4 Obama spent almost 10x more on ads than McCain in NC - (source Wisconsin Advertising Project)

New Mexico - Obama - it'll be close, but Obama and Bill Richardson will rally the Hispanic vote here. A big pick up.

Florida - McCain - he's going to be pumping in a lot of money to this state, a lot of money. In the previous two weeks Obama has spent almost 4 times as much as McCain in FL ads. McCain's camp knows he NEEDS this state to have a chance. I don't see it slipping through his fingers, old and wrinkly as they may be.

Maine - ??? - Maine has proportional system. Interesting. Just to make it interesting (try it on the map, it's fun) I'll call it 3-1 to Obama.

Colorado - Obama There's a lot of hippies in Colorado, and a lot of money, an interesting combo. Good move by the Dems having their convention there. That will push it up into their favor. Obama will pump a lot of money into this state. If you look at the map they way the pundits have it right now, all Obama would need is Colorado.

Nevada - McCain - Las Vegas had the most TV ads over the last two weeks followed by Denver, Milwaukee, Green Bay, Tampa, and Cleveland - you can see where the swing states are. Financial crisis could affect Nevada, with its fast growing population, but I see it staying Red.

Virginia - big prize, 13 electoral votes and like NC is a new one to being competitive. One of my boys is a DNC organizer there and is working his ass off, and seems positive, but c'mon it's Virginia - for lovers and Republicans. McCain Sorry Clark.

The final 3 states I am really just guessing on. And I know, if you look at the math, according to Tony Brown, Obama already has 273 and is the next president, but all McCain needs to do is flip one state, and things are back to interesting again, so let's pretend that New Mexico and Colorado are too close to call and we have to play the whole thing out.
So, for me, Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri are too close to call. Fun, Fun.

Indiana- for some reason, I see this one being stolen by Obama. I know it doesn't make much sense. It is a solid red state. It wasn't supposed to be close. Much like North Carolina, McCain has largely ignored it, Obama smelled blood and attacked it, but I feel Indiana has a more Midwest feel, so Obama has a better chance. Just my gut, but still should go to McCain.

Missouri- Another tough one to call. Here you got Midwest, South, and Great Plains. This one went to Clinton both times, so is much more susceptible to change. I think it could go Obama, but am really just guessing on this one. I drove through, but only went to colleges, which is maybe much of the reason why I think these swing states will go to Obama.

Ohio - The big swing prize. Will not decide the election this year, but again super important. If McCain can steal another state, then this one could win it for him. I feel it will be a lot like Indiana, hard hit by the economic crisis, but this time it will go to Obama thanks to the larger number of cities. Real rap.

Final Predictions:
Obama simply just has much more leeway. Only a few things need to go in his favor, whereas McCain needs to get every toss-up state. There is a lot of time to still make things interesting, a lot of light blue states that could switch to up-for-grabs.

I see Obama with at most 308 (Ohio, Indiana, Missouri) but most likely it will go 286 - 252 for Barack Obama That would mean only Ohio, Colorado, and New Mexico will have changed from last election, but for Obama, as that is his big slogan, that is all the "change" he would need.


Disclaimer: Though I work in Politics, I really don't like politics. This is my somewhat educated prediction. Play with the map. It's fun. I see why they like it so much on CNN. And let me know what you think.


1 comment:

Amy said...

So you totally stole CNN's predictions for the election. Tony when are you going to realize that cheaters never win? I'm just kidding;interesting read. Hopefully you're right friendo.