We are now 2/3 of the way through the year. I thought it would be a good time to check out the 2010 predictions I made at the beginning of the year. It will give me motivation for the last 1/3 of the year, and, I'm really blocking on quality writing ideas.
In the year 2010.....
-the Milwaukee Brewers will make the playoffs (starting out bold) Gosh I am stupid. If this prediction makes you stop reading, I totally understand.
- the Lost finale with disappoint (staying bold) Hmm, I think I am correct here. The last episode wasn't bad, actually pretty entertaining, but the last season was weak. And the last 10 minutes kind of lame.
- Brandon Jennings will not be Rookie of the Year I got one right.
- Everton will not win any trophies Yes, some bold predictions.
- Wisconsin Badgers basketball will win either the Big 10 regular season or Big 10 tournament Arggh, I thought this one would be on the mark. I think they ended a game out.
- Wisconsin Football will make a BSC Bowl When Wisconsin has expectations, they seem to fall well short. When they don't, they usually do well.
- The Republican Party will gain lots of seats in the House but only 2 seats in the Senate We'll see
- The Olympics will be somewhat interesting Hockey was fun.
- Tron, Robin Hood, Priest, and Toy Story 3 will be tight I really don't know why picked this films. I haven't seen any of them.
- The A-Team, The Karate Kid, and Little Fockers will suck probably correct
- I will begin writing the Great American Graphic Novel In they year 2011....
- I will go on a date Shit, I still got 4 months left, right?
- I will get a real job or get into a great masters program Damnit! The latter will not happen. Better get myself in gear.
- I will get into great shape Wow, wrong again. Nostradamus I am not.
- I will be on Survivor Ok, they're not taking applications, but I should send one in anyways. Let's put that one on 2011 docket as well.
- The US will make the Quarterfinals of the World Cup Should have
- Three celebrities that might die - Lil Wayne, Clint Eastwood, Winona Ryder Hey, we still got 4 months left. Get off my back!
- chances of me leaving Milwaukee 45% Still here, but chances of living are rising
- purple will be the hot fashion color told you
- Alicia Keys will still be super hot indeed
Monday, August 30, 2010
Thursday, August 19, 2010
EPL Fantasy Draft Review
Time for another fantasy English Premier League fantasy season. This is the fourth year my friends and I are running our own league. This year we are up to 12 teams, one more than last year, with a few dropping out and a few new additions, or promotions and relegations as we like to call them. We do our own league because there is not a draft based EPL fantasy league out there. Everything is based on salary cap. We do a draft. That makes it more fun, more entertaining, more cut throat, and more fragile. Every pick counts. The scoring is pretty simple with goals, assists, clean sheets, and team of the week getting points, and red cards own goals, and goals against getting negative points.
What sets the EPL fantasy draft apart from other fantasy leagues is the high level of uncertainty. Players are constantly moving between European Leagues. It’s possible that one of your top picks could not be in the Premier League in a few weeks time. Just imagine if you drafted Greg Jennings and he only played one game with the Packers before moving to the CFL. There is also a high amount of uncertainty among starting lineups. There are only a few defenders for the top teams that you can be sure will start every game. And unlike the NBA and NFL, for the most part, you do not want players from bad teams. Because scoring is so scarce and bad teams give up lots of goals, there are not players like Stephen Curry or Andre Johnson out there.
Ok, let’s get to the draft.
Round 1
1. Wayne Rooney – Striker – Man United – I had the privilege of drawing the number one pick. I was deciding between Rooney and Drogba, but went with Rooney because I feel even in a down season, he’ll still score 15 goals. Drogba could get 35, but he could also get 7. Rooney was the safer pick.
2. Cesc Fabregas – Midfielder – Arsenal - This manager is a super Arsenal fan and refuses to take players from Tottenham, Chelsea, Man U, Liverpool, or Man City. Obviously, he is handcuffed, but Fabregas is definitely a top 5 pick. Speculation of a move to Barcelona has ended, so he should perform this season.
3. Didier Drogba – Striker – Chelsea - Definitely the right pick here. His hat trick in the opening weekend has already proven that.
4. Frank Lampard – Mid – Chelsea- Due to being his fantasy team captain last season, Lampard was the league’s leading point getter. He has performed at a very high level all four years of this league, and there is no reason he should stop now.
5. Steven Gerrard – Mid – Liverpool – Gerrard was last year’s #1 pick, but injuries kept him from reclaiming that honor again. He will get points and will probably be in the fantasy team of the year. The only question mark is how Liverpool will play this season.
6. Robin Van Persie – Striker – Arsenal – Van Persie is one of the best goal scorers, when he plays. He seems to be injured a lot, so this pick has a bit of a risk.
7. Carlos Tevez – Last year’s third leading scorer after Drogba and Rooney, there was a little uncertainty if Tevez would stay at Man City, but now, he seems the only City striker who will get the start virtually every week.
8. Fernando Torres – Striker – Liverpool – Injuries are a concern, but Torres is dynamic when he plays.
9. Nicolas Anelka – Striker – Liverpool – I’d say the top 8 picks are pretty cut and dry – all are clearly in the top 10 and would only move up or down a few picks, but after that 8, things are a bit less transparent. There are a lot of good players, but as you’ll see by the next picks, not of the caliber of the first 8. I see Anelka as a player on the way down, so I would not like him at #9.
10. Andrei Arshavin – Mid – Arsenal – Probably the midfielder with the best upside remaining in the draft, but tailed off last year after an amazing first 4 months in the league.
11. John Terry – Defender – Chelsea – Probably not the player you foresee taking with your first pick, but pretty safe as the Champions will get lots of clean sheets and Terry will start every game despite his World Cup woes.
12. Antonio Valencia – Mid – Man U – This is probably the first pick I truly question. Valencia is a great player, but not a huge goal scorer. I think better midfielders were available.
Round 2
13. Petr Cech – Goalkeeper – Chelsea - Getting the best goalkeeper available is a good move, not sure if he is 13th pick worthy, maybe a bit safer than the last pick.
14. David Silva – Mid – Man City – A big risk here. City has loads of midfielders and Silva is unproven in the EPL, but it could be a stroke of genius before the end of the season.
15. Patrice Evra – Def – Man U – Of the big four, Man U and Chelsea are your surest bets for cleansheets. And on those two teams, there are probably only 4 defenders you can be certain will start every week. Evra is one of those.
16. Florent Malouda – Mid – Chelsea – For my opinion, better than Valencia and Silva. He seems to score goals every season and still be underrated.
17. Glen Johnson – Def – Liverpool – A great attacking defender. He will chip in some goals and assists, but will Liverpool’s defense consistently produce the clean sheets like years past?
18. Darren Bent – Striker – Sunderland – Streaky striker. I like the pick, but I’m not sure if he can match last year’s form, especially at Sunderland, especially without his strike partner Kenwyne Jones.
19. Joe Cole – Mid – Liverpool – A bit high at 19. I don’t recall Joe Call having a strong fantasy season in the four years of this league. Too many injuries. Maybe the new club will help.
20.Thomas Vermaelen – Def – Arsenal – Surprised to see Vermaelen, last year’s top scoring defender fall this far. He scores goals. He defends very well. Arsene Wenger has an eye for talent. Maybe people are not convinced about Arsenal.
21. Pepa Reina – Goalie – Liverpool – Not much about this pick, right place I guess.
22. Aaron Lennon – Mid – Tottenham – Has the potential to be one of the best fantasy midfielders in the league. Seems a little high, but maybe not at the rate midfielders are going.
23. Marouane Chamakh – Striker – Arsenal – I think Chamakh will be a very important player for Arsenal. Look for him to pair well with Van Persie, but I’m not sure that necessarily means fantasy success.
24. Ashley Cole – Def – Chelsea – I was thrilled to get Ashley Cole with the 24th pick. I see him as a scoring, assisting, cleansheet producing defender, definitely a first round talent.
Alright, I won’t bore you with all 17 rounds. Instead, check out my stellar team.
1. (1.) Rooney
2. (24.) Ashley Cole
3. (25.) Edwin Van der Sar – Goalie’s were going fast, and I think Van der Sar was the best bet only the board, especially already having a first choice striker.
4. (48.) Rio Ferdinand – Injury problems and getting old, but I still consider it a steal at 48.
5. (49.) Theo Walcott – Attacking midfielders on good teams are always a good bet. Walcott did not really perform last year, but I’m looking for him to find his best form this year.
6. (72.) John Carew – Good value for your second striker
7. Phil Jagielka – Strong defender, now playing for England. Everton should be good value in round 7.
8. (96.) Niko Kranjcar – With only one midfielder, needed proven goalscoring. Not flashy and not certain to start, but I’ll stand by it.
9. Johann Djourou – Def – Arsenal – If this guy starts even just half the games, this is a steal, but with injury issues, it might be a waste.
10. (120.) Stephen Ireland
11. Shaun Wright-Philips – This was a tandem pick here. I figured one would stay at City and fight for a spot and the other would go to Villa and take the place of Milner. Good picks. Best case scenario, both leave City
12. (144.) Sylvain Distin – Its possible Distin will be on the bench, but I again see Heitinga playing a number of different positions and Jagielka and Distin teaming up in the middle with Yobo the odd man out.
13. Joe Hart – This was kind of a defensive pick here. I know that a few people still had not picked a goalie and I know Hart had a chance of starting at City. If he didn’t he could go to Arsenal, Sunderland, or Fulham, which are not bad alternatives. I won this round.
14. Robert Huth – Stoke defender
15. Steven Nzonzi – a bit of a reach for the young Blackburn midfielder. I saw him score a tight goal against Everton, so I see a bright future.
16. Mesut Ozil – Not really a gamble, no down side, but no upside in the end. Real Madrid?
17. David Moyes – This year we are experimenting with taking managers. I don’t think it will have much effect, but either way, got to go with Everton.
I like me team. This is the most confident I’ve felt after a draft. Late round pieces like Hart and Ireland will make those early round picks even better. I could be derailed by injuries and poor form by Rooney. Other than that, I’m feeling good.
Here are some other draft hits:
Mikel Arteta – 5th pick in the 4th round – 6 goals and 2 assists in 13 EPL games last season
Maruone Fellaini – Another Everton player returning from injury, good value in the late 8th round
Milan Jovanovic – Attacking midfielder on a good team in the 9th round – steal
Johnny Evans – Another 9th round steal, will start a lot for Vidic and Ferdinand
Stephen Pienaar – Ok, I rate Everton players, but you can’t complain with Pienaar in the 10th round
Ryan Shawcross – Stoke defender in the 14th round, scored some nice goals last year and broke someone’s leg
Scott Parker – Good midfielding option in the 15th round
Luke Young – 16th round – should get some starts with Villa’s injury problems
Verdun Corluka – 11th round, nice
Some not so clever picks:
Yossi Beneyoun – Too high in the 5th round. Won’t start. Other players drafted around him much more valuable – Milner, Modric, Cuellar, Dunne, Downing, Saha
Zhirkov- 5th round. Ouch! Manager thought he was classified as a defender. Not a good pick either way.
Maxi Rodriguez – 8th round. 19th appearances with Liverpool. 1 goal.
Jonas Gutierrez – 8th round. Interesting choice.
Daniel Sturridge – 9th round. Probably would have been available in the 19th round
Charles N’Zogbia – 6th round, high even if he does stay in England
Teams – I think Rory did well for a newcomer. Usually there is a tough learning curve for new players. With picks like Evra in the 2nd, Berbatov in the 4th and Downing in the 5th, he seems to know what he is doing.
I expect the veterans Worth and Dustin to again challenge at the top, maybe more due to their transfer prowess than their drafts. For Dustin, I don’t expect Dunne and Gomes to have as good a season as last.
BJ – too reliant on Arsenal. Big surprise.
Junkie – a strong start with Gerrard, Vermaelen, Vidic, and Milner. Not sure if his depth will hold up.
Andy – a mixed bag, no big four defenders will give him inconsistent weeks.
Jerry – newcomer showed his naivety with some picks, but Drogba should help out.
Carlo – If Adebayor and Boateng play well for City, he has a chance to challenge for midtable, if not, he’ll be wishing Jesse were still in the league.
Serg – wishing Jesse were still in the league. Good thing he transferred for Balotelli
Raubert – Similar to Junkie, strong beginning to draft, may have what it takes to challenge the leaders
Bryan – I predict another season of languishing in the bottom half of the table.
A few random notes:
BJ has 7 Arsenal players
By the end of the week, Serg probably will have drafted 3 players who are not in the league
11 of Serg’s players have Italian managers
Bryan love Cahill’s, having both Tim and Gary, I believe Trevor is open for the Oakland A’s
Carlo has Paulo Ferreira and Pablo Barrera
Gomes, undrafted last season, 4th round this season
Bridge 7th round last year, 16th round this year
Robinho 1st round last year, 14th round this year
There you go, mostly random thoughts. Thanks for putting up with my over confidence and ribbing. I will own this league.
Robinho 1st round last year, 14th round this year
There you go, mostly random thoughts. Thanks for putting up with my over confidence and ribbing. I will own this league.
Friday, August 13, 2010
English Premier League Preview
Tomorrow is the start of another English Premier League Season. Exciting. I now know what I will be doing most Saturday mornings. This year due to the World Cup, we did not have much of an off season, but I am excited nevertheless. Last year my picks were pretty good, picking Chelsea to win, Tottenham and Man City to challenge for a Champion's League spot (but I predicted it at the expense of Arsenal, not Liverpool), and picking two of the three relegated teams.
Here are my predictions for an exciting season.
I believe things at the top are the most exciting they have been in years. In years past you really only had two or three times that could legitimately challenge for the title. This year, I think there are 5 - Chelsea, Man U, Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool. And then you have the second tier of teams that could finish in the top 4 and will consistently challenge the big boys - Tottenham, Everton, Aston Villa.
After that top 8, though, there is a large drop off.
You have your comfortable midtable teams - Fulham, Stoke, Birmingham
And them pretty much everyone else is in the relegation battle.
1. Manchester United - I'm really sure why, but I'm not feeling like Chelsea will win it again. Terry is getting old. Lampard cannot repeat his performance of last season. Man United hasn't really added too much, but they always seem to be having lots of young players coming up at all times. Look for Berbatov to finally tally some goals in Man U shirt. I think it comes down to depth, though. Man U has much more than Chelsea. Look at defense - Vidic, Evra, Ferdinand, Evans, Smailling, Raphael, Fabio, Wes Brown, Gary Neville. These are all competent defenders. And the midfield is much of the same.
Player to Watch - Chicharito
2. Chelsea - Took take the title again. Drogba coming back from injury, Anelka getting old, Terry getting old. Chelsea will need a few more additions to fully stake the claim as favorites.
Player to Watch - Solomon Kalou - I'm thinking Drogba or Anelka get injured.
3. Arsenal - One of the few top teams to really better themselves in the offseason. Van Persie will be mostly healthy to start the season. Chamakh provides a reliable 2nd striker. Fabregas did not leave. Gallas, Campbell, and Silveste left. There is a little uncertainty in the central defense, and a lack of a true defensive midfielder, but look to Arsenal to play their normal brand of exciting football - scoring lots, losing the occasional game to a bad team, losing to the best teams, playing well in Europe.
Player to Watch - Nasri - I'm feeling a breakout season for the Frenchman Nasri.
4. Manchester City - Lots of money, lots of players. A few more additions in the weeks to come. Uncertainty among who will actually play, they have so many players. It's kind of ridiculous. Two great keepers, loads of midfielders, strikers for days. I see talent only getting them so far. They will not gel until the end of the season.
Player to watch -Adam Johnson, one of the few unproven players at City.
5. Everton - Might be a bit of a homer pick here, but Everton has their strongest side in years. They have depth and competition for places. Look for breakout seasons for Jagielka and Arteta. Hopefully Everton can consistently beat the lower level competition and keep up the high level of play against the top teams. The lack of European football will actually help them. Look for a FA Cup or Carling Cup final as well as a strong league finish.
Player to Watch - Jack Rodwell - future England star.
6. Liverpool - They have the quality and are bringing in good players, but I don't think their defense is where it was a few years ago. Torres has had lots of injury problems. Joe Cole and Milan Jovanovic are good additions, but I think Liverpool are on the way down.
Player to Watch - Jovanovic - Young attacking talent, scored against Germany in the World Cup
7. Tottenham - Champions League will have an adverse effect on Tottenham. They'll be a bit stretched and will not be able to recreate the form of last year. They are a quality team, but not top 4 material.
Player to Watch - Michael Dawson - young(ish) defender, played great last year. Look for him to get better and be the only real rock on that defense.
8. Aston Villa - Loss of coach a week before the season. Their best player will soon be leaving. Things are going downhill fast for Villa. Lucky for them the teams below them are not really strong.
Player to Watch - Stuart Downing - Was a great young English player, but missed much of last season with an injury. He will have to step up with the impending loss of Milner.
9. Fulham - Nothing really excites me about Fulham. Last year the made it to the UEFA Cup final. Wild. I don't think they have a strong enough midfield to really challenge the big boys.
Player to Watch - Andy Johnson - Missed much of last season with injury. Can he return to his Crystal Palace/early Everton form? If so, Zamora and Johnson will be a dangerous combination.
10. Stoke City - Stoke are one of the few teams on the rise. The addition of Kenwyne Jones definitely signals this. Stoke know the brand of football they play, and in England, in the current EPL, it really works (at least against the bottom half of the table.)
Player to Watch: K. Jones
11. Blackburn - Much like Stoke, Blackburn play hard, physical football. Blackburn lack the quality strikers that Stoke have, but hard nosed midfield and defense will have them be a clear mid table team.
Player to Watch - Steven Nzonzi - Young midfield prospect, scored a cracking goal against Everton, so that's how I know him.
12. West Ham - Not too much to get excited for in Avrem Grant's West Ham. Charlton Cole is a quality striker and Scott Parker runs things well in the midfield. Defensive and consistent scoring are suspect.
Player to Watch: Barera
13. Bolton - Another industrious, physical, unimpressive on paper side. Kevin Davies epitomizes this team. They often times give teams like Liverpool and Arsenal problems, yet lose to Hull the next week.
Player to Watch - Matt Taylor - flair for great goals
14. Birmingham - I don't see Birmingham following up on their success from last year. They just don't have enough quality players and some of their best performers from last season are getting old.
Player to watch: Cameron Jerome
15. Newcastle - Back in the top league. I think they will struggle, but ultimately be safe. They want to be a big club again, but that will have to wait a few years while the maintain secure Premier League footing. Oh, and their players don't have the look of a big club, except the Big Sol Campbell.
Player to Watch - Andy Carroll - Exciting young striker, great in the air. Switching from number 39 to 9, though.
16. Sunderland - Some people are tauting Sunderland to challenge for the top 10. I see them barely avoiding relegation. They do have Darren Bent and young talent like Cattermole and Frazier Campbell, but their defense does not measure up and look for their offense, much like their striker Bent, to be dreadfully inconsistent.
Player to Watch: Frazier Campbell - will get lots of chances with Jones moving on.
17. West Brom - West Brom is the ultimate "yo-yo" club, but I think their EPL experience will help them hang on for another year.
Player to watch: Chris Brunt
18. Wigan - I have picked Wigan to go down for about 4 straight years now. I feel this will finally be the year. Rodallega cannot possible have a year like last year and their best midfielder N'Zogbia will be leaving.
Player to Watch: Alcarez
19. Wolves - Lots of bad teams around the league this year.
20. Blackpool - They have about 17 total players.
Player to Watch: Charlie Adam.
There you go. Enjoy the start of the season.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Champions! or maybe not
The World Cup and the potential for a strong USA run got me thinking about the likelihood that teams I support win a championship. I've chronicled in my Wisconsin Sports Woes entry about the torture that we often endure being a Wisconsin sports fan. In my life time, we've had a grand total of one true championship. I'm not counting division or conference or bowl wins here, I'm talking about a bonafide World or National Championship.
My thinking got me a bit sad, as the likelihood of an oncoming plethora of championships looks pretty bleak. Anyways, I've decided to take a closer look at my teams prospects of winning a championship.
1. Packers - The Packers are obviously number one, the far frontrunner of most likely to win a championship in my lifetime. They could win next year. They could win 3 times in the next five years. They have a great QB, an awesome receiving corps, and a strong young (for the most part) defense. But, even with greats like Favre and White, the Pack only won 1 Superbowl. The playoffs are tough, and the best team does not always end up champion.
Last Championship: 1997
Odds of winning a Championship in my lifetime: 97%
2. Bucks - I don't want you thinking I am on the Bucks bandwagon here. I don't think they have a team that can really compete with the best right now. It's just that basketball in many ways is a fickle game. Things change greatly from year to year. You only have 5 players on the court at a time. A few strong draft picks can totally change your fortunes. Look at the Spurs. They are a similar market to Bucks. They don't have tons of money, but a few draft picks, a strong coach, and a couple great foreigners have totally turned their franchise around.
What might be going against the Bucks, though, is that in the NBA, you truly have to be the best team. No "hot now" or "peaking at the right time" team will win 4-straight 7-game series.
Last Championship: 1971
Odds of Winning a Championship in my lifetime: 8%
3. Wisconsin Football - This one might surprise people. Winning a college football National Championship is hard, but I think the Badgers have all the right ingredients, and in the perfect storm, they could win it all. What are these ingredients you ask? A relatively strong program, killer home field advantage, play in a strong BCS conference, play an increasingly unique brand of football. Call me crazy, but I think they can do it. If the Badgers, as a Big 10 team go undefeated, there is no way the BCS can keep them out of the national championship game. They could do this if they build a strong team and play the right teams at Camp Randall. Get to the National Championship game, and they play a brand of football that the likes of Florida and Texas and teams like that are not used to playing. Just look at the Miami game last year. Again, maybe I am dreaming, but in the right circumstances, I like it.
Last Championship: Never
Odds of Winning a Championship in my lifetime: 3%
4. US Soccer - Team USA is what got my thinking about this list. Most agree the US is getting better at soccer, with the great draw and a potential for a break out tournament, you start dreaming. The problem is, the World Cup is only every 4 years. If it was every year, the US would be ahead of the Badgers and the Bucks, but the World Cup is tough. Spain, who were the favorites going in had to beat Chile, Paraguay, Portugal, Germany, and the Netherlands. Tough stuff. The USA will continue to improve, but will that be enough to be genuine contenders?
Last Championship: Never
Odds of Winning a Championship in my Lifetime: 2%
5. Wisconsin Basketball - The Badgers are a great program, but I don't think they are good enough to win it all. Bo Ryan is a great regular season coach, developing players, getting the most out of his team, but they are just not good enough in the post-season. Their flaws show clearly. With their style of play, they will always be good or very good, but never great. In college basketball, you need freak athletes. You need blue-chippers. Wisconsin just does not get them.
Last Championship: 1941
Odds of Winning a Championship in my lifetime: 1%
6. Everton -
For Everton, I only consider the Premier League Title or Champions League title a true championship. The League Cup or FA Cup, though greatly desired, does not really count in these terms. Everton are a good team, but everything in football is currently going against them. There is more money, more foreign investment, more foreign players and Everton cannot compete. The can field a strong side, but the best players will leave to get more money and more opportunities. Since 1995, only 3 teams have won the Premier League. That is a pretty wild stat. To compete Everton need a new stadium and new investors, but even that, does not guarantee success.
Last Championship: 1987
Odds of Winning in my lifetime: Less that 1%
7. Brewers -
Baseball. It's unfair. A few teams prey on the rest. Remember when we waited 26 years to make the playoffs and then lost in the first round? We were so thrilled just to make it there. Yes, then did nothing the next two years, and much of the success the playoff year was due to a free agent here half the year. Do you think the Rays won't begin shipping off players after this year? If you don't, you are incorrect. Plus Milwaukee is no Tampa. Maybe I've just been jaded by years of disappointment, but I don't think the Brewers stand a chance.
Last Championship: Never
Odds of winning in my lifetime: much less than 1%
Maybe I have unrealistic expectations, but even these 2 or 3 championships in my lifetime will be much more fulfilling than being a Lakers or Yankees fan.
My thinking got me a bit sad, as the likelihood of an oncoming plethora of championships looks pretty bleak. Anyways, I've decided to take a closer look at my teams prospects of winning a championship.
1. Packers - The Packers are obviously number one, the far frontrunner of most likely to win a championship in my lifetime. They could win next year. They could win 3 times in the next five years. They have a great QB, an awesome receiving corps, and a strong young (for the most part) defense. But, even with greats like Favre and White, the Pack only won 1 Superbowl. The playoffs are tough, and the best team does not always end up champion.
Last Championship: 1997
Odds of winning a Championship in my lifetime: 97%
2. Bucks - I don't want you thinking I am on the Bucks bandwagon here. I don't think they have a team that can really compete with the best right now. It's just that basketball in many ways is a fickle game. Things change greatly from year to year. You only have 5 players on the court at a time. A few strong draft picks can totally change your fortunes. Look at the Spurs. They are a similar market to Bucks. They don't have tons of money, but a few draft picks, a strong coach, and a couple great foreigners have totally turned their franchise around.
What might be going against the Bucks, though, is that in the NBA, you truly have to be the best team. No "hot now" or "peaking at the right time" team will win 4-straight 7-game series.
Last Championship: 1971
Odds of Winning a Championship in my lifetime: 8%
3. Wisconsin Football - This one might surprise people. Winning a college football National Championship is hard, but I think the Badgers have all the right ingredients, and in the perfect storm, they could win it all. What are these ingredients you ask? A relatively strong program, killer home field advantage, play in a strong BCS conference, play an increasingly unique brand of football. Call me crazy, but I think they can do it. If the Badgers, as a Big 10 team go undefeated, there is no way the BCS can keep them out of the national championship game. They could do this if they build a strong team and play the right teams at Camp Randall. Get to the National Championship game, and they play a brand of football that the likes of Florida and Texas and teams like that are not used to playing. Just look at the Miami game last year. Again, maybe I am dreaming, but in the right circumstances, I like it.
Last Championship: Never
Odds of Winning a Championship in my lifetime: 3%
4. US Soccer - Team USA is what got my thinking about this list. Most agree the US is getting better at soccer, with the great draw and a potential for a break out tournament, you start dreaming. The problem is, the World Cup is only every 4 years. If it was every year, the US would be ahead of the Badgers and the Bucks, but the World Cup is tough. Spain, who were the favorites going in had to beat Chile, Paraguay, Portugal, Germany, and the Netherlands. Tough stuff. The USA will continue to improve, but will that be enough to be genuine contenders?
Last Championship: Never
Odds of Winning a Championship in my Lifetime: 2%
5. Wisconsin Basketball - The Badgers are a great program, but I don't think they are good enough to win it all. Bo Ryan is a great regular season coach, developing players, getting the most out of his team, but they are just not good enough in the post-season. Their flaws show clearly. With their style of play, they will always be good or very good, but never great. In college basketball, you need freak athletes. You need blue-chippers. Wisconsin just does not get them.
Last Championship: 1941
Odds of Winning a Championship in my lifetime: 1%
6. Everton -
For Everton, I only consider the Premier League Title or Champions League title a true championship. The League Cup or FA Cup, though greatly desired, does not really count in these terms. Everton are a good team, but everything in football is currently going against them. There is more money, more foreign investment, more foreign players and Everton cannot compete. The can field a strong side, but the best players will leave to get more money and more opportunities. Since 1995, only 3 teams have won the Premier League. That is a pretty wild stat. To compete Everton need a new stadium and new investors, but even that, does not guarantee success.Last Championship: 1987
Odds of Winning in my lifetime: Less that 1%
7. Brewers -
Baseball. It's unfair. A few teams prey on the rest. Remember when we waited 26 years to make the playoffs and then lost in the first round? We were so thrilled just to make it there. Yes, then did nothing the next two years, and much of the success the playoff year was due to a free agent here half the year. Do you think the Rays won't begin shipping off players after this year? If you don't, you are incorrect. Plus Milwaukee is no Tampa. Maybe I've just been jaded by years of disappointment, but I don't think the Brewers stand a chance.Last Championship: Never
Odds of winning in my lifetime: much less than 1%
Maybe I have unrealistic expectations, but even these 2 or 3 championships in my lifetime will be much more fulfilling than being a Lakers or Yankees fan.
Thursday, July 15, 2010
World Cup Awards/Wrap Up
Time for my final World Cup post. Sad, but necessary. I've got a few awards and final observations.
Best Game - Ghana/Uruguay - Yes, had to go with this one. You have the stuff you can't make up with the Suarez handball, the Gyan miss, the Gyan make, the Abreu chip for the win, but the rest of the game was high quality too. The second half and overtime were great eb and flow stuff.
The fact that this is the game of the tournament might shed light on the fact that though the tournament had parity, and many close games, there wasn't really many truly great, memorable games.
Runners-up: US/Slovenia - The Algeria game had the moment and anticipation, but as an overall game, US/Slovenia one was much better, better play and entertainment. 2-0 to 2-2, the disallowed goal, and Slovenia unlike Algeria, played pretty well at the end.
South Korea/Nigeria - Most probably forgot about this game, but it was edge of the seat stuff for me. 1-0 Nigeria, 2-1 South Korea, the Yakubu miss, 2-2, then chances at the end to win it. Plus you have the drama of flipping back to the other game, and in the end knowing that all Nigeria needed to do was score to go through to the next round.
Best Moment -
Donovan Goal vs Algeria - It's hard to think of a moment that could top this one in any other sport. For 90 minutes the anticipation and anxiousness is growing and growing and just when you think it's over....GOAL!!!!
Best Fan:
Goodness
There were stories about the Dutch porn star who was going to blow all her twitter followers if Holland won and the Paraguay lingerie model that would run through the streets naked if Paraguay become champions, but I'm pretty sure neither has anything on this Australia fan.
Damn.
Runner up: Bill Clinton
Most fun team to watch - Germany - I definitely want to rewatch Germany against Australia, England, Argentina, and Uruguay. Fun young team and it isn't just about their counter attack ability. They are great in possession as well.
Tightest Jerseys (Physically tight, not tight meaning cool or fly) - Llorente (Spain) and France team. Adidas makes tight jerseys. I think Llorente's is painted on. It actually ripped from him just running. And France, well, at least they have one award.
Biggest Surprise - For me it has to be Japan. I had them getting zero points. Not only did they win two matches and make it to the next round, but they played well and made it through on skill not luck.
Last words: Lots of commentators are saying that this wasn't a very good World Cup. They complain about the lack of scoring, the lack of great games, the vuvuzelas and the ball, but I disagree. This is by far the most I have invested in a World Cup. I probably only missed about 5 games and saw a little more than half in their entirety.
I loved it - the passion, the skill, the different styles of play, the shear number of games, the ups and downs and surprises. My only complaint is I now have to wait 4 years for another one.
But all in all, to me, it was a great World Cup. I'll remember the awesome US games and people at home actually caring, the great German team, the African disappointment on the field, Spain's mastery, and much more.
South Africa 2010!
Best Game - Ghana/Uruguay - Yes, had to go with this one. You have the stuff you can't make up with the Suarez handball, the Gyan miss, the Gyan make, the Abreu chip for the win, but the rest of the game was high quality too. The second half and overtime were great eb and flow stuff.
The fact that this is the game of the tournament might shed light on the fact that though the tournament had parity, and many close games, there wasn't really many truly great, memorable games.
Runners-up: US/Slovenia - The Algeria game had the moment and anticipation, but as an overall game, US/Slovenia one was much better, better play and entertainment. 2-0 to 2-2, the disallowed goal, and Slovenia unlike Algeria, played pretty well at the end.
South Korea/Nigeria - Most probably forgot about this game, but it was edge of the seat stuff for me. 1-0 Nigeria, 2-1 South Korea, the Yakubu miss, 2-2, then chances at the end to win it. Plus you have the drama of flipping back to the other game, and in the end knowing that all Nigeria needed to do was score to go through to the next round.
Best Moment -
Donovan Goal vs Algeria - It's hard to think of a moment that could top this one in any other sport. For 90 minutes the anticipation and anxiousness is growing and growing and just when you think it's over....GOAL!!!!Best Fan:
Goodness
There were stories about the Dutch porn star who was going to blow all her twitter followers if Holland won and the Paraguay lingerie model that would run through the streets naked if Paraguay become champions, but I'm pretty sure neither has anything on this Australia fan.
Damn.
Runner up: Bill Clinton
Most fun team to watch - Germany - I definitely want to rewatch Germany against Australia, England, Argentina, and Uruguay. Fun young team and it isn't just about their counter attack ability. They are great in possession as well.
Tightest Jerseys (Physically tight, not tight meaning cool or fly) - Llorente (Spain) and France team. Adidas makes tight jerseys. I think Llorente's is painted on. It actually ripped from him just running. And France, well, at least they have one award.
Biggest Surprise - For me it has to be Japan. I had them getting zero points. Not only did they win two matches and make it to the next round, but they played well and made it through on skill not luck.
Last words: Lots of commentators are saying that this wasn't a very good World Cup. They complain about the lack of scoring, the lack of great games, the vuvuzelas and the ball, but I disagree. This is by far the most I have invested in a World Cup. I probably only missed about 5 games and saw a little more than half in their entirety.
I loved it - the passion, the skill, the different styles of play, the shear number of games, the ups and downs and surprises. My only complaint is I now have to wait 4 years for another one.
But all in all, to me, it was a great World Cup. I'll remember the awesome US games and people at home actually caring, the great German team, the African disappointment on the field, Spain's mastery, and much more.
South Africa 2010!
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Big Dunc's World Cup XI
I'm still in denial about the World Cup being over, so I will continue to pound you with World Cup posts. It's now time to look back on the exciting (sometimes) 5 weeks with Big Dunc's World Cup XI
Goalkeeper:
Iker Casillas (Spain) - Picking a best goalie was difficult. This World Cup was marked by a lot of goalkeeping errors. Casillas and Neuer for Germany were probably the only ones that didn't make obvious mistakes and Casillas saved a penalty and saved the Robben one-on-one to win the Cup for Spain
Honorable Mention: Howard - tough to blame Ghana's first goal on him despite positioning that could've been better, amazing otherwise, Steklenberger (NED) - mistake vs Forlan, but great tournament otherwise, Vincent Enyeama (NIG) - lots of spectacular saves in his three games, but one glaring mistake against Greece.
Defense:
Carlos Puyol (Spain) - The World Cup is a short selection of games. Many say Pique was better than Puyol, but Puyol made the huge play against Germany, the one people will remember.
Per Mertesaker (Germany) - Mertesaker was brilliant against Spain. Seriously check out the game and see how many times he intervened in dangerous situations. Great against England and Argentina as well.
Gio Van Bronckhorst - Goal of the tournament? If not, then pretty close. Held it down for the runner-up, but people will remember the goal.
Honorable Mention - Lugano (Uruguay), Pique (Spain), Ramos (Spain)
Midfield:
Thomas Muller (Germany) - Golden Ball winner and Young Player of the Tournament
Xavi (Spain) - Pulling all the strings for the Champion
Iniesta (Spain) - Great tournament, but it was the winning goal in the final that secured his place here
Wesley Sniejder (Netherlands) - Got some lucky goals, but it was his overall play that guided the Dutch to the final.
Bastian Schweinsteiger (Germany) - Ballack who? Schweinsteiger was the most instrumental player for the most enteraining team of the tournament. Check out the Argentina highlights if you don't believe me.
Honorable mention: Donovan (USA) - three goals and the driving force of team USA, Ozil (GER) - coming out party for Ozil, was amazing versus Australia, Ghana, England, and Argentina, but faded at the end
Strikers:
Diego Forlan (Uruguay) - Player of the tournament, did more for his team than probably any other player.
David Villa (Spain) - 5 goals, seemed to score them when Spain needed them most.
Honorable Mention: Asamoah Gyan (Ghana) - one penalty away from making the starting line-up, but his goal against the USA really showed America what we are missing, Luis Suarez (URU) - handball saved his team, but the goal against South Korea was pure class, Miroslav Klose - this guy just scores World Cup goals, the opener vs England was sublime, exactly what you want a center forward to do, too bad he missed the 3rd place game.
Goalkeeper:
Iker Casillas (Spain) - Picking a best goalie was difficult. This World Cup was marked by a lot of goalkeeping errors. Casillas and Neuer for Germany were probably the only ones that didn't make obvious mistakes and Casillas saved a penalty and saved the Robben one-on-one to win the Cup for Spain
Honorable Mention: Howard - tough to blame Ghana's first goal on him despite positioning that could've been better, amazing otherwise, Steklenberger (NED) - mistake vs Forlan, but great tournament otherwise, Vincent Enyeama (NIG) - lots of spectacular saves in his three games, but one glaring mistake against Greece.
Defense:
Carlos Puyol (Spain) - The World Cup is a short selection of games. Many say Pique was better than Puyol, but Puyol made the huge play against Germany, the one people will remember.
Per Mertesaker (Germany) - Mertesaker was brilliant against Spain. Seriously check out the game and see how many times he intervened in dangerous situations. Great against England and Argentina as well.
Gio Van Bronckhorst - Goal of the tournament? If not, then pretty close. Held it down for the runner-up, but people will remember the goal.
Honorable Mention - Lugano (Uruguay), Pique (Spain), Ramos (Spain)
Midfield:
Thomas Muller (Germany) - Golden Ball winner and Young Player of the Tournament
Xavi (Spain) - Pulling all the strings for the Champion
Iniesta (Spain) - Great tournament, but it was the winning goal in the final that secured his place here
Wesley Sniejder (Netherlands) - Got some lucky goals, but it was his overall play that guided the Dutch to the final.
Bastian Schweinsteiger (Germany) - Ballack who? Schweinsteiger was the most instrumental player for the most enteraining team of the tournament. Check out the Argentina highlights if you don't believe me.
Honorable mention: Donovan (USA) - three goals and the driving force of team USA, Ozil (GER) - coming out party for Ozil, was amazing versus Australia, Ghana, England, and Argentina, but faded at the end
Strikers:
Diego Forlan (Uruguay) - Player of the tournament, did more for his team than probably any other player.
David Villa (Spain) - 5 goals, seemed to score them when Spain needed them most.
Honorable Mention: Asamoah Gyan (Ghana) - one penalty away from making the starting line-up, but his goal against the USA really showed America what we are missing, Luis Suarez (URU) - handball saved his team, but the goal against South Korea was pure class, Miroslav Klose - this guy just scores World Cup goals, the opener vs England was sublime, exactly what you want a center forward to do, too bad he missed the 3rd place game.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
World Cup - Big Dunc's Players to Watch
Time to check my predictions. I did not mention in my World Cup Final post that I indeed did pick Spain to win it all and I had 3 of the 4 quarter finalists correct. Not bad, but not great either.
Time now to check on my prophesy skills in my Big Dunc's Player to Watch. Before the Cup began I picked a player from (almost) each team as a player to watch. I tried not to pick the most obvious player, so my picks mostly ranged from young players who could have a break out World Cup to players who were most instrumental in their side's success or demise. Now that the tournament is done, I'm scrutinizing and praising my picks and breaking them down into "Revelations" , "on the money", "off the mark", and "just dead wrong" picks.
Revelations - these are players that very few people had previously heard of or players that people did not expect to make a mark on the World Cup.
Siphiwe Tshabalala - South Africa - This is probably my best pick, scored a cracking goal to start off the World Cup and played well in all three games for the host country. Gotta give myself props for that one.
Luis Suarez - Uruguay- 4 goals, great combination play with Forlan, oh and a handball to save his team.
Mesut Ozil - Germany - Ozil was a revelation for Germany, the man pulling the strings in the German midfield. He did fade out after the Argentina game, though, but still a rising star of this tournament.
Kalu Uche - Nigeria - The prototypical player to watch - missed a great chance against Argentina, then scored against Greece and South Korea
Shane Smeltz - New Zealand - Scored against Italy and help New Zealand be the only team in WC 2010 without a loss.
Justo Villar - Paraguay - Keeper made a mistake against Italy but was virtually flawless after that, shuting out Slovakia, New Zealand, Japan and saving a penalty vs Spain. I've seen him as honorable mention on many World Cup Best XI teams.
Milan Jovanovic - Serbia - Scored the winner against Germany and now signed a big deal with Liverpool.
Asamoah Gyan - I think we all know about this guy by now, but may not have before the Cup began.
On the Money - these picks were correct but less risky or not as influential on games
Spain - I didn't pick a player for Spain because they are all so good. I think they showed I was correct there.
Gervinho -Ivory Coast - For my money, sans Drogba, Gervinho was the best player out there for Ivory Coast. Look for more in the future from this guy.
Maicon - Brazil - Most people already knew about Maicon, but if they didn't, they took notice after his great goal.
Jong Tae-Se - Didn't score, but was North Korea's best player.
Martin Skrtel - Slovakia - Strongly led Slovakia to the next round.
Samir Handanovic - Slovenia - Could have done better on the Donovan goal, but strong overall, wears pants, now being linked to Arsenal.
Ji-Sung Park - South Korea - No brainer there
Georgie Welcome - Honduras - Not much to choose from for Honduras, still has a great name.
Off the Mark
Suazo - Chile - Injury held him back
Pepe - Portugal - also recovering from injury
Van Persie - Netherlands - I said Van Persie would be key for Dutch success. Not really the case.
Christian Poulsen - Denmark - Didn't really do too much
Pierre Webo - Cameroon - Looked good in flashes, but didn't contribute too much to a struggling team.
Gareth Barry - England - When I said that Barry played a large part in the level of success for England I was kind of correct. Barry played poorly and so did England.
Yebda - Algeria
Di Maria - Argentina - Played well, but really didn't make an impact on such an offensive team. Signed a big contract with Real Madrid.
Samaras - Greece
Vela - Mexico - Injured
Altidore - USA - The World Cup has led me to reevaluate Altidore. He is currently not good enough.
Just Dead Wrong
Gignac - France - I guess any France pick would be dead wrong, but Gignac barely played and was not one to watch when he was on the field. Anelka or the fitness coach would have been better choices.
Bresciano - Australia - Not sure if he did a thing.
Gilardino - Italy - Did he take a shot the entire tournament? Man
Alexander Frei - Switzerland - Injury led him to play on 63 minutes in the tournament.
Japan - I didn't pick a player for Japan and instead picked a character from the movie Battle Royale. I did not think Japan would even score a point. I was wrong. I hope the nation of Japan accepts my apology.
Well, looks like I was about 50/50 with my predictions. Not bad I say.
Time now to check on my prophesy skills in my Big Dunc's Player to Watch. Before the Cup began I picked a player from (almost) each team as a player to watch. I tried not to pick the most obvious player, so my picks mostly ranged from young players who could have a break out World Cup to players who were most instrumental in their side's success or demise. Now that the tournament is done, I'm scrutinizing and praising my picks and breaking them down into "Revelations" , "on the money", "off the mark", and "just dead wrong" picks.
Revelations - these are players that very few people had previously heard of or players that people did not expect to make a mark on the World Cup.
Siphiwe Tshabalala - South Africa - This is probably my best pick, scored a cracking goal to start off the World Cup and played well in all three games for the host country. Gotta give myself props for that one.
Luis Suarez - Uruguay- 4 goals, great combination play with Forlan, oh and a handball to save his team.
Mesut Ozil - Germany - Ozil was a revelation for Germany, the man pulling the strings in the German midfield. He did fade out after the Argentina game, though, but still a rising star of this tournament.
Kalu Uche - Nigeria - The prototypical player to watch - missed a great chance against Argentina, then scored against Greece and South Korea
Shane Smeltz - New Zealand - Scored against Italy and help New Zealand be the only team in WC 2010 without a loss.
Justo Villar - Paraguay - Keeper made a mistake against Italy but was virtually flawless after that, shuting out Slovakia, New Zealand, Japan and saving a penalty vs Spain. I've seen him as honorable mention on many World Cup Best XI teams.
Milan Jovanovic - Serbia - Scored the winner against Germany and now signed a big deal with Liverpool.
Asamoah Gyan - I think we all know about this guy by now, but may not have before the Cup began.
On the Money - these picks were correct but less risky or not as influential on games
Spain - I didn't pick a player for Spain because they are all so good. I think they showed I was correct there.
Gervinho -Ivory Coast - For my money, sans Drogba, Gervinho was the best player out there for Ivory Coast. Look for more in the future from this guy.
Maicon - Brazil - Most people already knew about Maicon, but if they didn't, they took notice after his great goal.
Jong Tae-Se - Didn't score, but was North Korea's best player.
Martin Skrtel - Slovakia - Strongly led Slovakia to the next round.
Samir Handanovic - Slovenia - Could have done better on the Donovan goal, but strong overall, wears pants, now being linked to Arsenal.
Ji-Sung Park - South Korea - No brainer there
Georgie Welcome - Honduras - Not much to choose from for Honduras, still has a great name.
Off the Mark
Suazo - Chile - Injury held him back
Pepe - Portugal - also recovering from injury
Van Persie - Netherlands - I said Van Persie would be key for Dutch success. Not really the case.
Christian Poulsen - Denmark - Didn't really do too much
Pierre Webo - Cameroon - Looked good in flashes, but didn't contribute too much to a struggling team.
Gareth Barry - England - When I said that Barry played a large part in the level of success for England I was kind of correct. Barry played poorly and so did England.
Yebda - Algeria
Di Maria - Argentina - Played well, but really didn't make an impact on such an offensive team. Signed a big contract with Real Madrid.
Samaras - Greece
Vela - Mexico - Injured
Altidore - USA - The World Cup has led me to reevaluate Altidore. He is currently not good enough.
Just Dead Wrong
Gignac - France - I guess any France pick would be dead wrong, but Gignac barely played and was not one to watch when he was on the field. Anelka or the fitness coach would have been better choices.
Bresciano - Australia - Not sure if he did a thing.
Gilardino - Italy - Did he take a shot the entire tournament? Man
Alexander Frei - Switzerland - Injury led him to play on 63 minutes in the tournament.
Japan - I didn't pick a player for Japan and instead picked a character from the movie Battle Royale. I did not think Japan would even score a point. I was wrong. I hope the nation of Japan accepts my apology.
Well, looks like I was about 50/50 with my predictions. Not bad I say.
World Cup Final
The World Cup is over. I am sad. What will I now blog about?
Well, I think I can still squeeze out 2 or 3 World Cup posts.
World Cup Final
In a game that lacked the flow and creativity and disappointed on many counts, at least the better team won. Spain deserved the victory and are now deserving World Cup Champions.
The game itself was not great, but this is expected as the final game. Really no World Cup final has been a truly exciting game since 1986. This one wasn't horrible, with both teams having genuine chances, but it wasn't really fun either. Yellow cards were everywhere.
Neither team really pushed forward as much as they have in past games. There is little you can really point to as key strategic moves or driving forces of the game. Kuyt and Sneidjer were pretty quite compared to previous games. Robben was the only real threat for Holland. They played defensively, but not as much as Portugal or Paraguay. Spain did there short passing thing, but were disrupted often by the Netherlands.The introduction of Fabregas helped Spain some, but in the end, it was the red card that did the Dutch in. That central defensive pairing was gone and Holland had multiple chances to properly clear the ball before the goal. Great finish by Iniesta. He succeeded where Fabregas and Robben had failed and Spain are World Champions.
I feel for a 116th minute goal it was a bit anti-climactic. But, just like the NCAA tournament and the Champions League, the first rounds of the World Cup are often times far more interesting and entertaining than the last few games.
No real complaints. Make sure to check out the emotions in the pictures. Amazing. Thrill of victory, agony of defeat. The post goal one is best. Iniesta exstatic, Holland desimated. Love it.
Look for more World Cup Coverage to follow.
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Semis Review, Finals Preview
Uruguay/Netherlands - This was a fun game to watch. I thought Holland would take it a bit more easily. Again, the second half adjustments were huge. It's not that Van der Vart did so much, but the attacking style really help. I agree with the no offsides call. The late Uruguay goal made it interesting, but the deserving team is going to the final. Congrats to Uruguay for a greatly played tournament.
Spain/Germany - My pre-match analysis was pretty spot on for this one. Great football was played, but this would not be one that would awe the neutrals. Big soccer fans can see how great Spain plays, but they pass too much to be super entertaining. I do enjoy hard fought 1-0 games, but in actuality, neither team had loads of great chances. I wish Germany would have come out more aggressively. They wanted to counter attack, but needed a goal first to be as affective as they were vs. Argentina and England. Ozil has not looked as sharp these last few games, but Schweinsteiger has looked very impressive.
Final Preview
Spain/Netherlands - We will have a first time World Cup winner, that is cool.
I'm thinking this one will be more fun to watch than the Spain/Germany game. The Dutch will keep the two holding midfielders Van Bommel and De Jong in there to contain the amazing midfield of Spain, but are by natural a bit more aggressive than Germany, Paraguay, or Portugal.
I think the two important battles will be Villa against the Dutch central defenders. Mertesaker and Freidrich stayed very close together for Germany. They cut off many through balls and longer crosses. Holland will need to do the same against Spain. The lack of togetherness of the center D can definitely be blamed for the Brazil goal and maybe the first Uruguay one as well.
The other one will be Capdevila and Ramos against Kuyt and Robben. Will Spain's outside backs continue to push forward and exploit the wings or will the be more worried about the counter attack? This is an important question. With Van Persie being relatively ineffective, the best attacking play from the Dutch has come from the outsides. If Robben and Kuyt have to consistently mark Ramos and Capdevila, then they cannot support Van Persie and Sneidjer.
I think these matchups will tell the tale.
Prediction: 1-1 after 90 minutes, 2-1 Netherlands aet.
Spain/Germany - My pre-match analysis was pretty spot on for this one. Great football was played, but this would not be one that would awe the neutrals. Big soccer fans can see how great Spain plays, but they pass too much to be super entertaining. I do enjoy hard fought 1-0 games, but in actuality, neither team had loads of great chances. I wish Germany would have come out more aggressively. They wanted to counter attack, but needed a goal first to be as affective as they were vs. Argentina and England. Ozil has not looked as sharp these last few games, but Schweinsteiger has looked very impressive.
Final Preview
Spain/Netherlands - We will have a first time World Cup winner, that is cool.
I'm thinking this one will be more fun to watch than the Spain/Germany game. The Dutch will keep the two holding midfielders Van Bommel and De Jong in there to contain the amazing midfield of Spain, but are by natural a bit more aggressive than Germany, Paraguay, or Portugal.
I think the two important battles will be Villa against the Dutch central defenders. Mertesaker and Freidrich stayed very close together for Germany. They cut off many through balls and longer crosses. Holland will need to do the same against Spain. The lack of togetherness of the center D can definitely be blamed for the Brazil goal and maybe the first Uruguay one as well.
The other one will be Capdevila and Ramos against Kuyt and Robben. Will Spain's outside backs continue to push forward and exploit the wings or will the be more worried about the counter attack? This is an important question. With Van Persie being relatively ineffective, the best attacking play from the Dutch has come from the outsides. If Robben and Kuyt have to consistently mark Ramos and Capdevila, then they cannot support Van Persie and Sneidjer.
I think these matchups will tell the tale.
Prediction: 1-1 after 90 minutes, 2-1 Netherlands aet.
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
World Cup Catch-up
Well, the long holiday weekend has thoroughly worn me out. Lots of soccer and lots of drinking has prevented me from updating my World Cup thoughts. This quick entry will contain reviews of the great quarter final games and previews of the semi finals.
Brazil/Netherlands - This was one that could have been the World Cup final. Brazil dominated the first half. It was crucial for the Dutch to remain only one down at half time. If they went in 2-0, it would have been pretty close to over, but a few nice saves and some luck allowed them to come out in the second half only down by one. The second half was completely different. The Dutch did not make any personnel changes, but they were much more attacking. The first goal was luck and the second came from a nice corner, but both were created through attacking football. They were deserving of the win.
Melo was super idiotic on the red card. What was he thinking?
Robben can only go to his left and that was evident from the start.
I thought Kuyt played a great match. He was everywhere setting up his teammates, making tackles, and clearing balls off the line. His energy is tremendous, as one of my friends said (referring to his similarities to Sloth from Goonies) "Man, Goonies is everywhere.
Uruguay/Ghana - Wow, the World Cup is great, amazing, awesome. I love it. You cannot write this shit. That has to be the most unreal ending to a game I have ever seen. Most people fail to mention that Suarez cleared the first attempt off the line with his leg before he handled the next one. You have to feel for Gyan, even though he sent out the US. All he had to do was make a PK to become the first African team to get through to the next round. Wow. And then the last penalty, pretty audacious.
The entire game was back and forth, Ghana would be in control for 10 minutes, then Uruguay for 15, then Ghana for 15, then Uruguay for 10. A great World Cup quarter final. Drama.
Germany/Argentina - Germany again got the early goal they needed. I think it was super important for the Germans to keep the Argentines from scoring in the last 15 minutes of the first half. That is when they looked their most dangerous. Germany kept Argentina out and then again made some great half-time changes to hold out for the counter attack. Germany definitely deserved this one.
I think the play of Germany goalkeeper Manuel Neuer has been vastly under rated. We've seen lots of keeper mistakes this tournament, but none by the German. He faced a lot of shots from outside and caught them all, leaving no chance for Argentina to get the rebound.
The loss of Thomas Muller will hurt Germany in the semis and it was a super soft yellow card.
I don't know what to say about Miroslav Klose. This dude was just meant to score goals in the World Cup. He is never flashy or even super impressive, but he gets it done.
It looked like Argentina was paying close attention to Ozil and that gave more freedom to Bastian Schweinsteiger. He stepped up and was the one pulling the strings for Germany.
Lots of weapons and play makers on that team.
Spain/Paraguay - First half was dull, but second half was great! Again, I can't remember a more unreal 5 minutes of play. 2 missed penalties, one after the made one was called back. Another that should have been called and a ball cleared off the line. Wow. This is the World Cup! I love it!
In the end, Spain scored and they deserved it, but Paraguay still had a chance through Santa Cruz, but he couldn't tie things up. Either way, it was a great end to a great quarterfinals.
Semifinals
Netherlands/Uruguay - I'm not as excited for this one as I was for most of the quarters. Look for a close, defensive game. I expect the skill players for Holland - Sneijder and Robben - to make the difference in this one. Holland haven't been too impressive, but that did beat Brazil, so they are the favorites in this one. Look for a 2-0 Dutch win. I'm thinking one in about the 40th minute and one in the 90th.
Germany/Spain - A rematch of the '08 European final. I'm not sure how this one will play out. Will Germany sit back and play for the counter as Portugal and Paraguay did? That would make sense as they are so strong on the counter attack, but they have more quality than Spain's previous opponents. Look for Germany to try to disrupt some of Spain's possession. Spain knows that they cannot make mistakes in the midfield. My gut tells me this will not be as open a game as people are expecting. I could see 1-0 either way or maybe even 0-0. I'm seeing a shootout win by Spain.
Fun times ahead. I hope the semis are as exciting as the quarters.
Brazil/Netherlands - This was one that could have been the World Cup final. Brazil dominated the first half. It was crucial for the Dutch to remain only one down at half time. If they went in 2-0, it would have been pretty close to over, but a few nice saves and some luck allowed them to come out in the second half only down by one. The second half was completely different. The Dutch did not make any personnel changes, but they were much more attacking. The first goal was luck and the second came from a nice corner, but both were created through attacking football. They were deserving of the win.
Melo was super idiotic on the red card. What was he thinking?
Robben can only go to his left and that was evident from the start.
I thought Kuyt played a great match. He was everywhere setting up his teammates, making tackles, and clearing balls off the line. His energy is tremendous, as one of my friends said (referring to his similarities to Sloth from Goonies) "Man, Goonies is everywhere.
Uruguay/Ghana - Wow, the World Cup is great, amazing, awesome. I love it. You cannot write this shit. That has to be the most unreal ending to a game I have ever seen. Most people fail to mention that Suarez cleared the first attempt off the line with his leg before he handled the next one. You have to feel for Gyan, even though he sent out the US. All he had to do was make a PK to become the first African team to get through to the next round. Wow. And then the last penalty, pretty audacious.
The entire game was back and forth, Ghana would be in control for 10 minutes, then Uruguay for 15, then Ghana for 15, then Uruguay for 10. A great World Cup quarter final. Drama.
Germany/Argentina - Germany again got the early goal they needed. I think it was super important for the Germans to keep the Argentines from scoring in the last 15 minutes of the first half. That is when they looked their most dangerous. Germany kept Argentina out and then again made some great half-time changes to hold out for the counter attack. Germany definitely deserved this one.
I think the play of Germany goalkeeper Manuel Neuer has been vastly under rated. We've seen lots of keeper mistakes this tournament, but none by the German. He faced a lot of shots from outside and caught them all, leaving no chance for Argentina to get the rebound.
The loss of Thomas Muller will hurt Germany in the semis and it was a super soft yellow card.
I don't know what to say about Miroslav Klose. This dude was just meant to score goals in the World Cup. He is never flashy or even super impressive, but he gets it done.
It looked like Argentina was paying close attention to Ozil and that gave more freedom to Bastian Schweinsteiger. He stepped up and was the one pulling the strings for Germany.
Lots of weapons and play makers on that team.
Spain/Paraguay - First half was dull, but second half was great! Again, I can't remember a more unreal 5 minutes of play. 2 missed penalties, one after the made one was called back. Another that should have been called and a ball cleared off the line. Wow. This is the World Cup! I love it!
In the end, Spain scored and they deserved it, but Paraguay still had a chance through Santa Cruz, but he couldn't tie things up. Either way, it was a great end to a great quarterfinals.
Semifinals
Netherlands/Uruguay - I'm not as excited for this one as I was for most of the quarters. Look for a close, defensive game. I expect the skill players for Holland - Sneijder and Robben - to make the difference in this one. Holland haven't been too impressive, but that did beat Brazil, so they are the favorites in this one. Look for a 2-0 Dutch win. I'm thinking one in about the 40th minute and one in the 90th.
Germany/Spain - A rematch of the '08 European final. I'm not sure how this one will play out. Will Germany sit back and play for the counter as Portugal and Paraguay did? That would make sense as they are so strong on the counter attack, but they have more quality than Spain's previous opponents. Look for Germany to try to disrupt some of Spain's possession. Spain knows that they cannot make mistakes in the midfield. My gut tells me this will not be as open a game as people are expecting. I could see 1-0 either way or maybe even 0-0. I'm seeing a shootout win by Spain.
Fun times ahead. I hope the semis are as exciting as the quarters.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
World Cup - Quarter Finals Preview
Just a few last thoughts on the round of 16 games.
Kudos to Japan. They really exceeded expectations and played some good football. I had them getting zero points and didn't even give them a player to watch. A bit off I was. They belonged in the second round and one could definitely argue that they would not be undeserving of the quarter finals.
Spain - Still not looking like the World Cup Favorite. They are an amazing passing team. They always seem to have at least two or three options when on the ball, but are still having trouble breaking down defenses when they put 10 men behind the ball. Torres was not at all lively yesterday, almost looking uninterested and lazy. The sub Llorente certainly brought something different for Spain. He was the target man that Torres is not, and his height and energy gives Spain another option besides their short passing game. I think Torres will still start, but look for Llorente around the 60th minute if Spain are having trouble breaking down Paraguay.
Quarter Finals
Brazil/Netherlands - Great matchup, one people saw coming pretty much as soon as the World Cup Draw came out. The Dutch are 4-0, but still not hitting on all cylinders. The return of Robben will give Brazil something to think about and I think Brazil can be hit on the counter attack, a prime example being the US game last summer. The defense of Holland needs to be stronger than they have in games past. Brazil will not miss the chances that Japan and Slovakia did.
Big Dunc is rooting for: Netherlands
Prediction: Brazil
Ghana/Uruguay - In probably the least anticipated quarter final match, two teams which I had finishing 3rd in their group. Give Uruguay the edge on the attack front, with Forlan and Suarez, but Ghana could take this one if they control the midfield like against the US. Uruguay's unheralded midfielders will have to disrupt Ghana's flow and feed their strikers.
Big Dunc rooting for: Ghana
Prediction: Uruguay
Germany/Argentina - Probably the two teams in best form in this World Cup. Both have put forth impressive offensive and defensive displays so far. Defense remains the bigger question mark for both. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams come out much more guarded and defensive than in their last games. I think the speed of Messi and Tevez has an edge over Germany's defense. The ability of Germany to counter attack, though, will make this one interesting. I'm hoping for a 3-2 or so game, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 1-0 with the first team to score setting up shop in the back.
Big Dunc rooting for: Germany
Prediction: Argentina
Spain/Paraguay - Spain is the clear favorite in this one, but I expect it to be another close game, probably similar to Spain's win against Portugal. Paraguay have not given up a goal since their first game. Spain will need Villa to remain in form to break down the Paraguay D.
Big Dunc rooting for: Spain
Prediction: Spain
Some potential great m
atches. From the looks of it, I hate South America, but rate them well.
Enjoy.
Kudos to Japan. They really exceeded expectations and played some good football. I had them getting zero points and didn't even give them a player to watch. A bit off I was. They belonged in the second round and one could definitely argue that they would not be undeserving of the quarter finals.
Spain - Still not looking like the World Cup Favorite. They are an amazing passing team. They always seem to have at least two or three options when on the ball, but are still having trouble breaking down defenses when they put 10 men behind the ball. Torres was not at all lively yesterday, almost looking uninterested and lazy. The sub Llorente certainly brought something different for Spain. He was the target man that Torres is not, and his height and energy gives Spain another option besides their short passing game. I think Torres will still start, but look for Llorente around the 60th minute if Spain are having trouble breaking down Paraguay.
Quarter Finals
Brazil/Netherlands - Great matchup, one people saw coming pretty much as soon as the World Cup Draw came out. The Dutch are 4-0, but still not hitting on all cylinders. The return of Robben will give Brazil something to think about and I think Brazil can be hit on the counter attack, a prime example being the US game last summer. The defense of Holland needs to be stronger than they have in games past. Brazil will not miss the chances that Japan and Slovakia did.
Big Dunc is rooting for: Netherlands
Prediction: Brazil
Ghana/Uruguay - In probably the least anticipated quarter final match, two teams which I had finishing 3rd in their group. Give Uruguay the edge on the attack front, with Forlan and Suarez, but Ghana could take this one if they control the midfield like against the US. Uruguay's unheralded midfielders will have to disrupt Ghana's flow and feed their strikers.
Big Dunc rooting for: Ghana
Prediction: Uruguay
Germany/Argentina - Probably the two teams in best form in this World Cup. Both have put forth impressive offensive and defensive displays so far. Defense remains the bigger question mark for both. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams come out much more guarded and defensive than in their last games. I think the speed of Messi and Tevez has an edge over Germany's defense. The ability of Germany to counter attack, though, will make this one interesting. I'm hoping for a 3-2 or so game, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a 1-0 with the first team to score setting up shop in the back.
Big Dunc rooting for: Germany
Prediction: Argentina
Spain/Paraguay - Spain is the clear favorite in this one, but I expect it to be another close game, probably similar to Spain's win against Portugal. Paraguay have not given up a goal since their first game. Spain will need Villa to remain in form to break down the Paraguay D.
Big Dunc rooting for: Spain
Prediction: Spain
Some potential great m
atches. From the looks of it, I hate South America, but rate them well.
Enjoy.
Monday, June 28, 2010
World Cup - Round of 16
With the US loss, I guess I'll again have to pay attention to the rest of the World Cup.
England/Germany - It's a shame all everybody is talking about the Lampard goal that was not a goal and not the great play by the Germans. I know that the call changed things, but let's not overlook the fantastic play by the Germans and the relatively disappointed play by England. Ozil is really the difference maker in this side. Klose and Podalski are for whatever reason, way better at the World Cup than at any other time. They are consistent strikers, something the US and England lack. Germany are still a very young team. Their offense is efficient and fun to watch, but it may be the defense that lets them down in the end.
This is a good time not to be English. Unlike the US, where there were a few key things to focus on that went wrong or were not good enough, England has loads of reasons for the loss. Their reasons - unsuitable formation, poor center backs, lack of width, center midfielders not playing well together, lack of a strong forward - don't make sense though, as they have such great players on the club level. Things won't be pretty across the pond over the next few months as blame will be placed in many areas.
Oh, and about the "no goal goal". That was worse than the US/Slovenia call. The US one was a judgement call. This one was black and white. The ball was in and crossed the line. Why was it not a goal? Why can't soccer have some sort of review?
Mexico/Argentina - Another bad call here that is overshadowing the great play of the winning team. I was not one to jump on the Mexico band wagon and was not suprised that Argentina won this one. They were clearly the better team. So many attacking options and the intoxicating Maradona to boot. Argentina/Germany should be great.
Brazil/Chile - The better team won this one. There isn't much else to say. Like Argentina, Brazil has many options on the offensive side and a defense even better than Argentina.
Netherlands/Slovakia - This one went pretty much as expected. Netherlands still didn't play as well as people are hoping, but they are doing enough. They scored early, gave Slovakia a few chances, then scored again on the counter attack. That is a pretty solid blueprint for World Cup success. Having Robben back helps, but the Orange will need more against Brazil.
Tomorrow
Spain/Portugal should be a great one. Can Torres find his form? Does Spain need him to? Will the Spanish midfield overrun Portugal? Can Ronaldo run at the Spanish backs? Should be a fun one.
Look for Japan/Paraguay to be a close one, but I see Paraguay edging out Japan in the end.
England/Germany - It's a shame all everybody is talking about the Lampard goal that was not a goal and not the great play by the Germans. I know that the call changed things, but let's not overlook the fantastic play by the Germans and the relatively disappointed play by England. Ozil is really the difference maker in this side. Klose and Podalski are for whatever reason, way better at the World Cup than at any other time. They are consistent strikers, something the US and England lack. Germany are still a very young team. Their offense is efficient and fun to watch, but it may be the defense that lets them down in the end.
This is a good time not to be English. Unlike the US, where there were a few key things to focus on that went wrong or were not good enough, England has loads of reasons for the loss. Their reasons - unsuitable formation, poor center backs, lack of width, center midfielders not playing well together, lack of a strong forward - don't make sense though, as they have such great players on the club level. Things won't be pretty across the pond over the next few months as blame will be placed in many areas.
Oh, and about the "no goal goal". That was worse than the US/Slovenia call. The US one was a judgement call. This one was black and white. The ball was in and crossed the line. Why was it not a goal? Why can't soccer have some sort of review?
Mexico/Argentina - Another bad call here that is overshadowing the great play of the winning team. I was not one to jump on the Mexico band wagon and was not suprised that Argentina won this one. They were clearly the better team. So many attacking options and the intoxicating Maradona to boot. Argentina/Germany should be great.
Brazil/Chile - The better team won this one. There isn't much else to say. Like Argentina, Brazil has many options on the offensive side and a defense even better than Argentina.
Netherlands/Slovakia - This one went pretty much as expected. Netherlands still didn't play as well as people are hoping, but they are doing enough. They scored early, gave Slovakia a few chances, then scored again on the counter attack. That is a pretty solid blueprint for World Cup success. Having Robben back helps, but the Orange will need more against Brazil.
Tomorrow
Spain/Portugal should be a great one. Can Torres find his form? Does Spain need him to? Will the Spanish midfield overrun Portugal? Can Ronaldo run at the Spanish backs? Should be a fun one.
Look for Japan/Paraguay to be a close one, but I see Paraguay edging out Japan in the end.
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