Man, Big Dunc is slipping. A cross country trip and a new job and a boring Survivor season has prevented Big Dunc from writing anything new. My news, and this post, is definitely late breaking, as in late breaking, not breaking late. Got it? Anyways, I figured I'd share my thoughts a few weeks late on the announcement of the World Cup Host for 2018 and 2022.
What? This more of a what??!! than a What: subcategory. This post is very stream of consciousness if you can't already guess. But as I'm sure you know, Russia has been awarded the 2018 World Cup and Qatar the 2022 World Cup. to the lay person, this doesn't make much sense. To the soccer insider, this doesn't make much sense. To the media, it is just plain odd. The favorites a few months ago were UK for 2018 and USA for 2022. Then recently Russia and Qatar entered the fray. The day before the announcement I'm thinking Russia was a slight favorite and the USA was a slight favorite. Either way, the awarding to Qatar and Russia was perplexing. Analysis: The decisions on their own make sense. There is no way FIFA would put the World Cup in the two most Western nations in the world, two English speaking countries as well. So it makes sense that UK and USA were not a pair. Russia is seen as an untapped market for soccer, a place where lots of people play, but the game hasn't really taken off economically as compared to Western Europe. It puts the Cup in a new place and "opens up" Eastern Europe to FIFA and the rest of the World. Qatar is in the Middle East. It has money. It is the most stable, safe place in the region. With this pick, FIFA is trying to be groundbreaking, trying to be proactive. I'm also thinking Qatar must have promised lots of profits. But, together, they don't make sense. Why not have one in England or the US. This would be guaranteed to be a money maker and a successful World Cup with little or no money having to be spent before hand. Lots of things could go wrong in either place. Russia has vodka, the mob, cold weather. Qatar has sand, heat, oil. Both places will not be easy to get to or stay in. It will be an expensive trip for all. So, as most, I can't make total sense of FIFA's World Cup host choices. Both selections have something to offer, something new, something political perhaps, but both also have huge potential flaws. 2018 and 2022 are a long time away, put I am still disappointed in those choices. But then again, why not travel to Russia or Qatar. It would be quite fun.
The World Cup and the potential for a strong USA run got me thinking about the likelihood that teams I support win a championship. I've chronicled in my Wisconsin Sports Woes entry about the torture that we often endure being a Wisconsin sports fan. In my life time, we've had a grand total of one true championship. I'm not counting division or conference or bowl wins here, I'm talking about a bonafide World or National Championship. My thinking got me a bit sad, as the likelihood of an oncoming plethora of championships looks pretty bleak. Anyways, I've decided to take a closer look at my teams prospects of winning a championship.
1. Packers - The Packers are obviously number one, the far frontrunner of most likely to win a championship in my lifetime. They could win next year. They could win 3 times in the next five years. They have a great QB, an awesome receiving corps, and a strong young (for the most part) defense. But, even with greats like Favre and White, the Pack only won 1 Superbowl. The playoffs are tough, and the best team does not always end up champion. Last Championship: 1997 Odds of winning a Championship in my lifetime: 97%
2. Bucks - I don't want you thinking I am on the Bucks bandwagon here. I don't think they have a team that can really compete with the best right now. It's just that basketball in many ways is a fickle game. Things change greatly from year to year. You only have 5 players on the court at a time. A few strong draft picks can totally change your fortunes. Look at the Spurs. They are a similar market to Bucks. They don't have tons of money, but a few draft picks, a strong coach, and a couple great foreigners have totally turned their franchise around. What might be going against the Bucks, though, is that in the NBA, you truly have to be the best team. No "hot now" or "peaking at the right time" team will win 4-straight 7-game series. Last Championship: 1971 Odds of Winning a Championship in my lifetime: 8%
3. Wisconsin Football - This one might surprise people. Winning a college football National Championship is hard, but I think the Badgers have all the right ingredients, and in the perfect storm, they could win it all. What are these ingredients you ask? A relatively strong program, killer home field advantage, play in a strong BCS conference, play an increasingly unique brand of football. Call me crazy, but I think they can do it. If the Badgers, as a Big 10 team go undefeated, there is no way the BCS can keep them out of the national championship game. They could do this if they build a strong team and play the right teams at Camp Randall. Get to the National Championship game, and they play a brand of football that the likes of Florida and Texas and teams like that are not used to playing. Just look at the Miami game last year. Again, maybe I am dreaming, but in the right circumstances, I like it. Last Championship: Never Odds of Winning a Championship in my lifetime: 3%
4. US Soccer - Team USA is what got my thinking about this list. Most agree the US is getting better at soccer, with the great draw and a potential for a break out tournament, you start dreaming. The problem is, the World Cup is only every 4 years. If it was every year, the US would be ahead of the Badgers and the Bucks, but the World Cup is tough. Spain, who were the favorites going in had to beat Chile, Paraguay, Portugal, Germany, and the Netherlands. Tough stuff. The USA will continue to improve, but will that be enough to be genuine contenders? Last Championship: Never Odds of Winning a Championship in my Lifetime: 2%
5. Wisconsin Basketball - The Badgers are a great program, but I don't think they are good enough to win it all. Bo Ryan is a great regular season coach, developing players, getting the most out of his team, but they are just not good enough in the post-season. Their flaws show clearly. With their style of play, they will always be good or very good, but never great. In college basketball, you need freak athletes. You need blue-chippers. Wisconsin just does not get them. Last Championship: 1941 Odds of Winning a Championship in my lifetime: 1%
6. Everton - For Everton, I only consider the Premier League Title or Champions League title a true championship. The League Cup or FA Cup, though greatly desired, does not really count in these terms. Everton are a good team, but everything in football is currently going against them. There is more money, more foreign investment, more foreign players and Everton cannot compete. The can field a strong side, but the best players will leave to get more money and more opportunities. Since 1995, only 3 teams have won the Premier League. That is a pretty wild stat. To compete Everton need a new stadium and new investors, but even that, does not guarantee success. Last Championship: 1987 Odds of Winning in my lifetime: Less that 1%
7. Brewers - Baseball. It's unfair. A few teams prey on the rest. Remember when we waited 26 years to make the playoffs and then lost in the first round? We were so thrilled just to make it there. Yes, then did nothing the next two years, and much of the success the playoff year was due to a free agent here half the year. Do you think the Rays won't begin shipping off players after this year? If you don't, you are incorrect. Plus Milwaukee is no Tampa. Maybe I've just been jaded by years of disappointment, but I don't think the Brewers stand a chance. Last Championship: Never Odds of winning in my lifetime: much less than 1%
Maybe I have unrealistic expectations, but even these 2 or 3 championships in my lifetime will be much more fulfilling than being a Lakers or Yankees fan.
Group G: Brazil, North Korea, Ivory Cost, Portugal
Group H: Spain, Honduras, Chile, Switzerland
First things first, I love the draw for the US. If I could have hand picked a team from pot 3 it would be Algeria and if I could hand pick a team from pot 4 it would have been Slovenia or Slovakia. Also US/England. Yes! I don't care about the 1950 game, c'mon, who does? But US/England is great. These players know each other. They speak the same language. They play together. Most Americans that watch soccer follow England and the English league. I am very excited, and even better, the media will love this matchup. The common soccer fan will be interested in this matchup. Hot shit.
Nothing really matched up with my mock draw, except the US got Slovenia and Algeria. I actually like my overall mock draw drawing better than the real one.
Ok, lets take a look at the groups. I'll rank them in order of strength from weakest to strongest.
8. Group F Italy got the hook up here. Paraguay is a quality side, and is one of those teams that performs well, always making the World Cup and even the second round in 98 and 02, but doesn't really scare the big boys. New Zealand is not very good, and Slovakia is one of the worst European sides, and I believe the only World Cup newcomer. Top make it worse, none of these teams really play a exciting style of football. These may be some of the least interesting games in the tournament, but watching the underdog New Zealand will be fun.
Prediction: 1st Italy 2nd Paraguay
7. Group H - Spain has got to be happy here. They are surely already checking out their tough matchup in the 2nd round. Should be a more exciting group, with Honduras and Spain playing attacking football. Switzerland, not giving up a single goal in '06 should go through to the next round. Chile, I don't know much about them
Prediction: 1st Spain 2nd Switzerland
6. Group C - To the non-Anglo world, this could be the worst or second worse group, but I am American, so I like it. Don't really know much about Algeria or Slovenia. Both qualified through playoffs.
Prediction: 1st England 2nd USA
5. Group B - This group I think has the second worst top seed (South Africa the obvious worst) and does not have a clear team that should take second. It gains strength on paper from the Greek win in Euro 2004. I'm interested to see what kind of team Nigeria puts out there. I'm hoping for a fun, attacking squad. One thing is clear, there will be no easy wins in this group.
Prediction: 1st Argentina, Nigeria and South Korea battle it out for 2nd
4. Group A - Wouldn't have expected South Africa's group to be in the top half of quality, but the drawing of France makes it that way. Plus the host host country always gets a huge boost and Mexico, despite their qualifying trouble, is a perennial 2nd round team. Uruguay, with a Fifa ranking of 19 is over-rated.
Prediction - 1st Mexico 2nd France
3. Group E - This is the first group that I consider to be a strong group, one that I am happy the US is not in. Netherlands dominated in qualifying and have a very strong side. Denmark won a tough group in qualifying containing Portugal, Sweden, and Hungary, so they seem to be stronger than ever. Cameroon were The African team in 90s and always do well in the Olympics and U-21 tournaments, but haven't done much on the big stage in a while. Japan are a mid level team. Should be a high level of entertainment in these matches.
2. Group D - This group is close to number 1 because there is no inferior team. I believe any of these teams can qualify in first or second. Germany is a great tournament team. Ghana is a team poised for a huge break out after making the 2nd round and outing playing Brazil in their first World Cup Appearance in 2006. Australia is similar, looking to build upon their 06 success. I feel their level of competition (qualifying in Asia instead of Oceania) will help them in this group. No easy games with Serbia winning their group with France in qualifying, but I do see Serbia taking 4th in this group.
Prediction: 1st Germany 2nd Australia edging out Ghana
1. Group G - I really don't see it as a horrible Group of Death as far as groups of death go. Look at 2002's England, Sweden, Argentina, and Nigeria. North Korea is a real outlier. I'm a afraid the people of North Korea may not even know that the World Cup is going on after the government said they would sensor the games, only showing them if North Korea does well. The other three sides are very strong, though. I was worried that the US would get Cote d'Ivoire when they were drawn next, but they went to the next open South American group leader. I expect lots of goals in this group and some beautiful football.
Prediction 1st Brazil 2nd Portugal - I just don't think Ivory Coast has enough depth.
There you go. We still got 6 months! to wait. Boo! So I won't get too deep into my predictions. But I am very pleased with the draw today and excited about lots of matches US/England, Mexico/South Africa, Argentina/Nigeria, Netherlands/Cameroon, Germany/Australia, Australia/Ghana, Brazil/Cote d'Ivoire Portugal/Brazil, Cote D'Ivoire/Portugal.
Well, Fifa has finally announced their top seeds and I was pretty on with my analysis from the other day. Here is a quote from my previous post "with the only possible variables would be the Netherlands or Portugal taking the place of England or France." And guess what, I was correct. Fifa changed things up from what they usually and took the top 7 countries in the Fifa world rankings and The Netherlands has taken the place of France as the final top seed. Some are conjecturing that this is their response to the Henry handball, but I think it is just response to France playing poorly over the last two years and the Netherlands straight balling in the qualifying round. One more thing, the US pot consisting of Mexico, Honduras, USA, New Zealand, South Korea, North Korea, Australia, and Japan will be the first pot drawn after the top seeds. I'm cool with that as it will make the draw even more exciting, as every team pick will now matter rather than just the last round. Perfect scenario for Group A - South Africa, USA, Uruguay, Slovenia
Big day this Friday. The 32 nation field will be drawn for next summer's World Cup. Some team's fates will already be decided by about noon central time on Friday. For those of you working, here is the ESPN online link The draw is obviously huge for all teams, particularly those middle level teams like the USA. The could have a vicious draw and be grouped for example with Spain, the Netherlands, and Nigeria or they could have a great draw and be with South Africa, Slovenia, and Uruguay. So lots is determined by the Friday draw.
There are lots of mock drafts out there for fantasy sports and the NFL and NBA draft, so I decided to go with a Mock Draw. It won't really mean anything, but will be fun and show the indefinite natureof the process.
Here are a few rules to know.
There are 32 teams, but they are not being drawn randomly, but Fifa is not being very forthcoming in how exactly the draw will take place.
Here is what we know for sure.
-The 32 teams will be divided into 4 separate pots.
-Pot 1 will be the top seeded teams in which the host South Africa and reigning champion Italy are guaranteed a spot. The other 6 tops seeds have not yet been announced by Fifa
- Groups will not contain more than two European teams
- Groups will not contain multiple teams from any region other than Europe (i.e. a South American team cannot be drawn with another South American team)
-One pot will contain 8 European teams that are not top seeds
-The remaining two pots will be a mixture of the remaining teams
What is still up in the air:
-the top 8 seeds will most likely be South Africa, Italy, Brazil, Germany, Spain, France, Argentina, and England. Other teams in contention are the Netherlands and Portugal. FIFA uses performance in the last two World Cups and qualification and other Fifa tournaments to determine these top seeds. It seems very unscientific, but I think the way it is above makes it the most uncluttered. Say the Netherlands were one of the Top 8 in place of Argentina, then there would not be an even group of 8 European teams and New Zealand would have to be in with the 7 remaining European teams, which would be totally unfair. Then along with South Africa and Italy I would say Brazil, Argentina, Spain, and Germany are locks, with the only possible variables would be the Netherlands or Portugal taking the place of England or France.
- it is unknown how the 16 remaining non-European teams will be drawn. It usually depends on the host country and who wins the intercontinental playoffs.
It could be the 5 Africans and the 3 North American teams in one and the 4 Asian, 3 South American teams, and the Oceania winner in the other
or
the 3 North American, 4 Asian, and 1 Oceania in one and the 3 South American and 5 Africans in the other.
It will probably be the latter, as this allows for the neatest draw, as you only need to have sub-pots in one round of the draw, so South Africa, Brazil, and Argentina are not drawn with someone from their continent. But the other way would require sub-pots in two rounds.
As a US fan, I would rather face a South American, Asian, or Oceania team, and Uruguay beating kept that unlikely possibility open. Llately Fifa has been erratic with rules, so you never know.
Ok, I probably confused with too much information there. We'll go with the most likely scenario for the draw.
On with the Draw!
Pot 1 Top Seeds (South Africa, Italy, Brazil, Argentina, Germany, Spain, England, France)
Pot 2 Remaining European Teams (Netherlands, Portugal, Denmark, Slovakia, Serbia, Switzerland, Greece, Slovenia
Pot 3 Africa and remaining South America (Uruguay, Chile, Paraguay, Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Nigeria, Algeria)
Pot 4 North America, Asia, Oceania (Mexico, USA, Honduras, Australia, Japan, North Korea, South Korea, New Zealand)
First Draw:This is just to determine the Groups the tops seeds go in 1. South Africa - Group A
2. Argentina - Group B
3. Germany - Group C
4. France - Group D
5. Brazil - Group E
6. Italy - Group F
7. England - Group G
8. Spain - Group H
Second Draw Pot 2: No need for sub-pots here. First team drawn with go in group A, second in group B and so on. Top seeds will definitely want to avoid Netherlands and Portugal and would probably like to see Slovenia and Slovakia
Group A - Greece - South Africa will not mind this Group B - Slovakia - Argentina will be pleased with this Group C - Denmark - Potential interesting battle with Germany Group D - Serbia - Serbia won the group over France in qualification Group E - Slovenia - No problem for Brazil, Netherlands and Portugal still out there along with Switzerland Group F - Netherlands - Mouth-watering match up vs. Italy Group G - Switzerland - England certainly pleased by avoiding Portugal who took them out of World Cup 2006 and Euro 2000 and 2004 Group H - That leaves Portugal - Nice Iberian battle here with Spain
Draw 3 - Pot 3 with African and South American sub-pots. Teams here would want to draw Algeria, Chile, or Uruguay. This years African teams are very strong.
Group A - due to South Africa being in the group, the South America pot will be used, and South Africa draw: ChileHost will be ok with that. Group B - Africa pot will now be used for Argentina - Cameroon Drawn - historically tough team with World Cup experience, but did not qualify in 2006 Group E - we will stick with the African pot here for Brazil - Algeria drawn - Brazil looking very good here. The remaining teams - Paraguay, Uruguay, Ghana, Nigeria, and Ivory Coast are now put into a single pot for the rest of the pot 3 draw
Group C - Paraguay - potentially strong group here Group D - Ghana - things not looking great for France Group F - Nigeria - potential group of death with Italy, Netherlands, and Nigeria Group G - Cote d'Ivoire - lots of interesting Premier League matchups here - Terry vs. Drogba, Toure vs. Barry Group H - only team left are Uruguay - Spain and Portugal have to be happy with that
Draw 4 Pot 4, no sub-pots needed
I'd say teams would want to avoid Mexico and Australia and maybe the US. Teams would love drawing New Zealand and would be happy with North Korea and Honduras as well. For the USA, I want to avoid Spain/Portugal and Italy/Netherlands/Nigeria groups. Ideal would be South Africa other than that Brazil/Slovenia/Algeria would be the best.
Group A - Honduras - USA doesn't get South Africa, but the host must be hugely pleased with their draw. Group B - Mexico - interesting group here, with the Mexico/Argentina tie being the most anticipated Group C - North Korea - rest of group happy with this draw, though N. Korea and Kim Jong-Il huge unknown
Group D - South Korea - pretty solid group here Group E - USA - great draw for the US. If we get this group I will immediately take celebratory shots and buy a US jersey Group F - Japan - group of death I would say, especially for Japan only New Zealand and Australia remain Group G - Australia - solid group here, nothing easy for England, probably not pleased with the outcome Group H - last team drawn - New Zealand - Spain and Portugal must be loving their turn of fortune.
Final Results
Group A
Group B
Group C
Group D
South Africa
Argentina
Germany
France
Greece
Slovakia
Denmark
Serbia
Chile
Cameroon
Paraguay
Ghana
Honduras
Mexico
North Korea
South Korea
Group E
Group F
Group G
Group H
Brazil
Italy
England
Spain
Slovenia
Netherlands
Switzerland
Portugal
Algeria
Nigeria
Cote D'Ivoire
Uruguay
USA
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
There you go. That was fun. I would love this draw in real life. Great for the US. Group F appears to be the "group of death" Loads of interesting match ups, as I'm sure will be the case in real life, so tune in again on Friday for my real World Cup Draw Analysis.
I'm pretty much ballin' an all accounts- unemployed, live with my sister, I read comic books and Harry Potter, and wake up at 5:30 AM on the weekends to watch English football. Yes! Pretty much anything I have to say is the truth.
